The thing about predictions is that if they’re right no one really notices.
Consider: You are planning a day in the park. The goofy guy on the local TV news says that the weather will be “partly sunny.”
So you go to the park.
It rains.
You’re pissed and mutter some things about that weathercaster’s mother.
It is fully sunny.
You don’t even remember the weather prediction.
There have been a number of predictions made that were never realized in history.
In 2007, when he was running Microsoft, Steve Ballmer said there was “no chance” that the iPhone would gain any market share. There is the distinct possibility that you are reading this on an iPhone.
John Philip Sousa, the composer of the rousing marches, thought that recorded music would proliferate in people’s homes (true) but with the consequence that no one would want to learn the art and craft of creating music (false).
Then there is Dick Rowe, who worked for Decca Records in London, who told Brian Epstein in 1962, “The Beatles have no future in show business.”
Predictions are precarious things.
Ted Gioia is, according to tedgioia.com, “a musician and author, and has published eleven non-fiction books. . . . His books have been translated into Spanish, Italian, German, Greek, Turkish, Korean, Chinese, and Japanese. Gioia’s wide-ranging activities as a critic, historian, performer, educator and YouTube presenter have established him as a leading global guide to music past, present and future.”
And on the subject of the future, Mr. Gioia has written a piece on his Substack site, “12 Predictions for the Future of Music,” which includes a preemptive warning: “If you earn your living from music, some of these changes might come as a shock.”
Some are provocative. But if you’re able to generate income in the music industry such that you can “earn a living,” odds are (1) these predictions won’t be particularly surprising and (2) you probably have the skillset that would permit you to do practically anything for a living, from bomb disposal to swimming with the sharks.
